2022 Wrapped | Thoughts From Zac Goodman

It’s a wrap this year. Done, dusted, packed up and on the beach – reflecting on what a strange year it has been in the real estate world. If I was to sum up 2022…

Rates came back:

Quicker than we thought, and nearly no one was ready for it – even though we all saw the dashboard lights flashing a while ago.

Cap values caught a hard upper cut:

Predominantly due to rates, but also a result of crumbling confidence which feels like it started around the time of the Ukraine invasion. Long term impact on yields is over hyped (it always is), there is no pure correlation that you’ll find historically. But the emphasis will be on operational/ true market fit/ add-value opportunities if you want to make profits next year.

Rents:

Surprisingly stayed strong, and in some cases increased. Caveat: The right spec, the right location, the right offering (Flex/ Managed/ CAT A+).

WFH is part of our lives now:

And there’s no discernible trend between those that promote it and those that don’t. My best guess is that it settles at 70% of pre pandemic levels and stays there. Smaller business still want space, larger business too, but less space, better located and a much higher spec. How to deal with employees is still a cluster f**k for most.

Sustainability has gone mainstream in CRE:

Every day this year I’ve seen another company either hire a sustainability officer, become a B Corp, or achieve one form of accreditation or another. This is great, but it’s become a confusing world of virtue signalling, and badge wearing. At some point the shoe drops and we all have to produce proper auditable data that’s verifiable.

Productivity discovery:

That’s right, not price discovery. There’s a cold wind blowing in, and we will all have to do more with less for a while. Business and therefore real estate will learn very quickly next year what we can achieve without… (people, real estate, technology). Every business will be different and will tackle cost reduction differently. My gut tells me those that manage to maintain good people that meet together often will be the most successful. (Part talking my own book/ part pure instinctive belief).

So, what will TSP be investing in 2023?

We like to look at the ‘what’s left’ scenario.

With so much change, what remains unchanged? What becomes scarcer but more in demand?

Think high spec flex offices, prestige retail and other operating uses that have longevity over novelty. Don’t think ‘market carry – this will come back like before’. That’s just hit and hope.

To all that made it to the bottom – have a wonderful Channukah, Christmas and New Year.

Reset and recharge for 2023.

[Original LinkedIn post here]